Hochschule für Technik
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Geotechnik-Seminar am 5. November <<

Die erste Veranstaltung der Vortragsreihe über aktuelle Fragestellungen aus der Geotechnik findet statt am Montag, 05. November 2018, 17:30 Uhr an der HFT Stuttgart.

Goals and uncertainties of modern probabilistic seismic hazard
assessments: Example of the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment of Germany – version 2016

The new version of the national seismic hazard assessment for Germany (Grünthal et al., 2018, Bull Earthquake Eng https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-018-0315-y) will be presented. This new version is based on a comprehensive involvement of all accessible uncertainties in models and parameters and includes the provision of a rational framework for integrating ranges of epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities in a comprehensive and transparent way.

The developed seismic hazard model incorporates significant improvements over previous versions. It is based on updated and extended databases, it includes robust methods to evolve sets of models representing epistemic uncertainties The output specifications were designed according to the user oriented needs as suggested by two review teams supervising the entire project.

Seismic load parameters, for rock conditions of vS30 = 800 m/s, are calculated for three hazard levels (10, 5 and 2% probability of occurrence or exceedance within 50 years) and delivered in the form of uniform hazard spectra, within the spectral period range 0.02–3 s, and seismic hazard maps A broad analysis of resulting uncertainties of calculated seismic load parameters will be presented. The stability of the hazard maps with respect to previous versions and the cross-border comparison will be emphasized. The web portal http://gfz-potsdam.de/EqHaz_D2016 hosted at GFZ Potsdam provides access to the products of this national hazard project.

Prof. Dr. Fabrice Cotton
Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam Deutsches GeoForschungsZentrum – GFZ und
Universität Potsdam, Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften


Hochschule für Technik Stuttgart
Bau 1, Tiefenhörsaal (U37)
Schellingstr. 24
70174 Stuttgart

Kontakt für Rückfragen: Prof. Dr. Thomas Benz (thomas.benz@hft-stuttgart.de)